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Enjoy it While You Can!

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You know it is not going to last, so you better take advantage of this nice weather while you have the chance. To put things into perspective, the first ten days of the year last year we only had three days that managed to even get above the freezing mark. So far this year, our days have been quite mild and will be again on Friday when we will be well into the 50s once again. That will be followed by a downward trend with temperatures in the 40s on Saturday and the 30s for Sunday.

The really cold air will be arriving on Monday and will persist into the latter part of the coming week. Temperatures are expected to remain below freezing for much of next week which will be more of a shock than the cold air was last year due to how mild we have been leading up to it.

The next issue is precipitation and we have been receiving many requests regarding where the snow is this winter. So far, it has been everywhere else but here. However, there are indications we will get at least some snow during the Sun-Mon time frame. The vertical profiles of temperature and moisture that are forecast by Sunday support a chance of some light snow or perhaps some ice pellets primarily for the more southern counties of the viewing area. Current indications suggest that any amounts will be very light with the bulk of the precipitation with this particular system more concentrated in Texas and then eastward along the Gulf coast from there. The upper level system that will produce that round of precipitation is currently off the coast of Baja California and is beginning to make a move eastward. There is always the chance systems in that location will pull a surprise or two, but so far there has been remarkable consistency in its temporal and spatial development.

As this system moves on eastward later Sunday and Sunday night, it will open the door for the really cold air to start settling over the state for Monday and the rest of the week. At the same time, another disturbance aloft will be moving across the state on Monday and in a position to wring some moisture out of the air. The vertical profiles of temperature and moisture certainly are supportive of snow by then, but the amount of moisture that is available is very limited so unless something changes, the total amounts will be on the light side. Barring any surprises, the current parameters suggest anywhere from a dusting to a couple of inches of snowfall by the time it all ends Monday night.

After that, it is just a matter of how cold will it get before a moderating trend sets up by late in the week. As always, these things are subject to change so check back for updates and stay tuned.

Dick Faurot

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