Round Three on Tuesday.

Round two of this wintry weather event is in the waning stages as I write this but we are also being set up for round three which will not involve any precipitation, just cold and wind. The lingering snowfall will taper off to flurries as we go through the night tonight followed by clearing skies by early Tuesday morning. The clearing skies will also result in a cold start to the day and gusty NW winds will put wind chill values into dangerous territory. We are expecting lower teens and possibly even some single digits to start the day but NW winds of 10-20 mph will put wind chill values at or below zero at times. For example, notice the wind chill map on the right which occurred while I was writing this and it will only be worse by early morning.

Despite sunny skies, those winds will also keep us from thawing out as our daytime highs will only be in the 20s. The winds will be quickly subsiding by evening and with snow on the ground, clear skies, and light winds most of us will be in the single digits to start the day Wednesday. Much the same can be expected again on Thursday morning but by that afternoon our winds will be returning to a more SE direction. We really will not start to thaw though until Friday and Saturday when we will have stronger southerly winds in advance of the next cold front which now looks to be delayed until during the day Sunday.

In fact, this next system has a lot of uncertainty as the longer range guidance has not been consistent regarding the timing, intensity, or prospects for precipitation. In Alan's morning discussion, he mentioned that he was going with one particular solution but acknowledged the potential problems that may occur with it. I have opted to go with what we refer to as an ensemble solution which tends to smooth out some of the larger discrepancies that often occur with the more operational models. There is also more consistency regarding the ensemble solutions between the various longer range products which gives me a little more confidence that the next cold front will arrive during the day Sunday. At this point, it also does not appear to be as extreme an event as some of the operational models would suggest.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot