Another cold morning is underway with temperatures around 3 to 7 degrees near the Tulsa metro. Winds are not as strong as yesterday morning, but some wind chill values near 0 to -10 will be possible for a few hours this morning and a wind chill advisory remains for a few hours this morning. Mainly sunny and cold conditions are expected today with highs in the lower to mid 20s but a few high thin clouds will be possible.
The arctic ridge of high pressure will slide eastward Thursday and return surface flow will kick a relative warm up into play with highs in the lower 30s tomorrow and moving into the 40s Friday and Saturday.
The extended appears messy once again as models continue to diverge on solutions.
There is some hint of possible stratus or even Fog potential Friday near or north of the area. But confidence is low at this point.
Regarding the weekend:
I am leaning closely to following the EURO solution which would offer more cold air, now on Sunday, lasting through Tuesday. A slight chance of wintry precipitation would also occur Monday or Tuesday. Stay tuned on this one.
The general thinking is a boundary will ooze into northern OK Sunday and stall across the northern third of the state. Locations north of this boundary may be in the upper 30s while locations south would be in the upper 40s. The boundary may briefly lift northward Monday for a few hours before sliding back southward Monday afternoon, eventually bringing colder air back to the entire region Monday evening through Tuesday with some improvement Wednesday.
The ensembles support a major pattern change by the end of next week. This would mean temperatures above normal for a few days by the end of next week into the mid to late January period. But the pattern will more than likely revert back to the northwest flow by at least the first of Feb.