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Alan's Tuesday Morning Weather Blog

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A weak front cleared the area last night bringing cloud cover and north winds back to the region.  Look for high temperatures today in the lower to mid 40s with morning clouds giving way to afternoon sun.  North winds at 5 to 10 mph will be common.  The upper air flow continues to be from the northwest and this will allow another front to move into the area Wednesday afternoon or evening but no precipitation is expected. 

Thursday and Friday warmer air will arrive with afternoon highs approaching the lower to mid 60 s Friday afternoon and possibly into Saturday, but the warm up will be short lived. 

A pleasant period of a few days will pass before another significant surge of arctic air will move southward.  This cold air intrusion is still up for grabs regarding the exact arrival time.  The data for the past few days suggested the leading edge of cold air would arrive Saturday with very cold air likely Sunday and Monday.  Yesterday's GFS and EURO data still suggested a leading edge intrusion for Saturday but not the excessively cold air that had been modeled in the past few days.  This mornings data suggest the initial cold front may not enter the area until Saturday evening and I have made some adjustments to the Saturday temps to account for this delay. The EURO suggested the extremely bitter cold air would not arrive until Tuesday.  Oh the joy of forecasting the weather.  The bottom line:  we'll bring the front into the area pre-dawn Sunday, but hold off the bitterly cold air until Monday evening.

 The upper air pattern will be conducive to bringing a storm system on top of the cold air either Monday or Tuesday of next week.  This means the chance of some wintry precipitation will be back into the forecast sometime early next week.  This is not a done deal, but we can't ignore the data or leave out that portion of the forecast.  I'll keep a slight chance of precipitation for Monday with higher snow chances occurring just beyond the 7 day period.

 We're moving along in time and space quickly.  January is almost history, the Super Bowl will be played in two weeks, and we're about 40 to 60 days away from the theoretical start of the spring storm season.  I celebrated, or tolerated, another birthday recently.  I'm a few years away from the AARP membership and those much anticipated over 50 discounts at the restaurants.  Time is fly'n my friends.  Let's make the best of the amount we have left on this earth.  Thanks for reading and have a super day.

 

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