Warming Up Soon

Mostly sunny conditions will be likely today.  A few clouds will be present as a surface trough swings across the area by midday to early afternoon.  High temperatures today will be in the upper 40s or lower 50s. The surface trough will result in a wind shift and a few clouds, but no precipitation.  Highs Thursday and Friday will continue to warm up before more arctic air invades the State either Sunday or early next week. 

The fire danger will become extremely high over the next few days due to very dry vegetation, gusty winds, and low humidity values during the afternoon. 

Things appear on track for the next few days with temperatures moving above normal today through Saturday.  We expect daytime highs Friday to move into the mid or upper 60s with southwest to west breezes at 10 to 15 mph.  The first part of the weekend looks good, but the second half should turn colder with increasing clouds and a chance of some wintry precipitation by Monday and possibly Tuesday. 

The main upper air flow will be favorable for developing a cut off low across the southwest Baja region soon.  This upper level system will not begin moving eastward until Saturday or Sunday.  The cold arctic air building northward will be moving southward during this time period and may be entrenched across the southern plains by early next week.  This pattern is usually favorable for icing, but don't get too excited at this point, as model data indicates the positioning of the southern stream low may be too far south to tag the northern part of the state.  If the cold air is deep enough, this pattern would suggest snow.  And comparing the last two arctic intrusions, the air mass has been sufficiently deep and more southward to keep the precip in the snow category.  But at this point, the actual model output is extremely low for actual precipitation chances across the area.  The minor exception would be in the EURO data for Monday as the significant surge of arctic air arrives. Forecaster confidence for the extended portion of the forecast, Sunday through Tuesday, is a 4 based on a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 representing the highest level of confidence.  Hopefully the data will offer more consistent solutions regarding this time period and our confidence in solutions will rise.  

The bottom line:  Only slight mentions of showers or snow showers will be made at this point for Sunday night through Tuesday.  Temperatures will eventually get colder early next week.