The Day After
The snowfall is over and now the issues turn to temperatures, wind chills, and the next arctic mass to arrive early next week.
Today we see a mid level system over New Mexico that will be sliding southeast with time spreading some clouds across the region. This morning we'll see some sun with very cold air. Single digit readings are currently underway and the afternoon highs will range in the mid teens with wind chills from 0 to -15 across a large area. Extreme northwestern sections of the region will experience even colder wind chill values from -15 to -25. This will prompt the issuance of a wind chill warning for some sections of the state. The Tulsa metro is currently not included in this wind chill warning.
A big issue we'll struggle with over the next few days in the role of the ice and snow pack and the influence this will have on the daytime highs. We have typically undercut the temperatures for both highs and lows due to the massive snow cover. We'll no doubt be making changes and tweaks to the temperature forecast once we see exactly how the daytime highs respond to our Oklahoma glacier! Cold weather will remain through the weekend but we will see some moderation of temps by Saturday and Sunday. But then another big chunk of arctic air will be sliding southward early next week.
It's not impossible to see a few snow flurries Friday, but our main focus will be early next week.
The GFS and EURO data are now both hinting at a Monday passage of another arctic front. This would knock our temperatures back into the cellar Monday through at least Thursday.
The GFS and EURO both offer a chance for some snow Sunday evening into Monday with the GFS offering a much higher chance and a higher total of near 4 inches. The EURO is not quite as bullish with the precipitation forecast and would mainly be in the form of light snow showers. At this point, I'll keep the 30% chance of snow for Monday and not make a major increase in the probability for at least one more forecast cycle.
I did make some significant changes to the Monday and Tuesday temperature forecast, and probably should drop these numbers even lower.
A word of caution regarding driving conditions:
The wind and blowing snow created significant snow drifts on some highways and streets. The total snowfall combined with these very large drifts will make travel extremely difficult until plowing crews have a chance to make serious progress in clearing some of the drifts. Use some patience today and for the next few days. I'm no expert in snow removal, but I think this is going to take some time for improvement my friends. Be safe.