This is our wet season and the month of May is typically the wettest month of the year for the eastern half of the state. By the end of June, our rainfall drops off quite rapidly since the Summer-time storms are typically not as widespread as the larger scale events we get in Spring-time. I mention all this because it appears we have another potentially very wet system coming our way later in the coming week and it may even extend into that weekend. This system has not been handled very well by the large scale, long range models to this point; but, all indications are that it is moving more slowly than appeared to be the case just a day or two ago.
In the meantime, unusually cool conditions will prevail again Sunday and to start the coming week. A blocking pattern aloft continues to funnel very cool air our way with a brisk northerly wind at the surface and aloft. This pattern will be slow to change, and with very cool air aloft moving over us we will likely see a mix of sun and clouds again on Sunday. The cooler air aloft may even wring out a few light showers over the more NE counties by day's end, but anything that falls will be quite light.
As the pattern gradually changes, drier air aloft will move overhead resulting in more sunshine for Monday and Tuesday. However, the fair night time skies and lighter winds by then will also allow for some very cool mornings. Daytime temperatures will begin to moderate due to the increasing sunshine, but those persistent northerly winds will still keep us well below normal.
By Wednesday, a brisk southerly wind will quickly pull moisture back our way and there may be some storms in the western portions of the state, a few of which may affect our more western counties by late in the day. As the next storm system aloft slowly moves closer, we will have gusty southerly winds going into the coming weekend and increasing chances of showers and storms. The overall pattern and the time of year all suggest some of these storms will likely be severe. Also, it appears there will be several rounds of storms beginning on Thursday, again on Friday, and perhaps on Saturday as well. In addition to the severe threat, these repeated episodes may well result in localized flooding problems once again.
The exact timing and details will not be worked out till we get closer to the event, so in the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.