A Cool Start; Then It Gets Interesting

As you can see by the map on the right from the OK Mesonet, our day started off clear and quite cool for this time of year. This morning's clear, cool start will give way to mostly cloudy skies for much of the day, then clearing skies again tonight. A layer of moisture aloft will be drifting back over us during the day followed by drier air for the overnight hours and for the next few days. Together with brisk NW winds, that will keep temperatures in the low-mid 60s again this afternoon, so another very cool day.

Monday and Tuesday will also start off clear and cool with morning lows in the lower 40s which is near record territory. At least the drier air aloft will result in plenty of sunshine both days, but a north wind of 10-15 on Monday and a more E to NE wind near 10 on Tuesday will still keep temperatures much below normal. We would normally be around the 80 degree mark for a daytime high at this time of year, but only expect to be in the low-mid 70s for both days.

By Wednesday, a more SE wind will become rather gusty during the day and clouds will be on the increase. Temperatures will still be below normal though. That will change later in the week as gusty southerly winds bring warmer and more humid air back over us which will also result in more cloud cover and increasing chances of storms.

In fact, the latter part of the week could get very interesting. A significant storm system will be slowing moving across the southern Rockies during the coming week and could turn out to be a real trouble maker. In advance of it, there could be some storms during the day Wednesday, but right now it appears that most of the activity will hold off till during the Thursday/Friday time frame. Unfortunately, it also appears that this system will eject in pieces keeping chances of showers/storms right on through the coming weekend.

The timing/strength/location of this feature is being handled differently by the various long range guidance products, so the details will probably not become very apparent until a day or two in advance. Suffice to say, that the latter part of this week and quite possibly through the weekend and for that matter into the following week will be characterized by a very unsettled weather regime. All modes of severe weather will be possible during that time frame and we may end up with some flooding issues as well.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot