We have had a pretty good little run since late last week with the clear, cool nights and very mild daytime temperatures. Speaking of which, Fayetteville, Ark set a record this morning with a low temperature of 36 degrees. That is coming to an end although temperatures will likely remain below normal for at least another day or two.
The graph on the right depicts atmospheric conditions for 7 AM Wed morning and around 5,000' up or the 850 mb level for those of you familiar with upper level charts. Highlighted is an area in which strong warm air advection is expected to be taking place at that time. Notice that area is right over us and that is the reason we anticipate some late night and early morning showers and storms to be developing. This is where the low level jet will be strongest along with the associated warm air advection pattern aloft as depicted. Since this is due entirely to upper level features, the surface parameters are of little consequence. I mention that because our surface dew point temperatures will still be in the 40s and there will be no surface based instability. Even so, these elevated storms will be capable of producing some small hail and locally gusty winds along with brief, but heavy downpours.
That activity will move on eastward and gradually wane as the day wears on with a slight chance of some redevelopment by late afternoon. The mostly cloudy skies for much of the day will also keep temperatures in the 70s after starting off in the lower 50s; so yet another day that is below normal with respect to temperatures.
After that, mostly cloudy skies will be the general rule through the coming weekend along with warmer days and warmer nights. These very warm, humid conditions will also lead to chances of showers and storms on any given day, some of which will have the potential to become severe. Right now, it appears the most likely location for severe storms will be west of us for Thursday and over us on Friday, but that is certainly subject to change.
The slow moving storm system to our west will provide a very unstable, unsettled weather pattern as a series of systems rotate through it. There are indications that it will finally get pushed further east by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week in which case the latter part of next week will see improving weather conditions. Between now and then, this unsettled pattern could make things rather interesting and will have to be closely watched on a daily basis.
As always, stay tuned and check back for updates.
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