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Active Pattern Underway

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A few pre-dawn storms are possible across eastern OK this morning.  Highs will be in the 70s.  Another chance of late night and early Thursday morning storms will be possible across northern OK. 

 We're watching a few storms this morning across the eastern third of the state.  This activity is not severe  This activity is being fueled by a low level jet and a weak mid level disturbance moving out of the Rockies.  As the low level jet weakens and moves away from the region, and the storms move out of the jet, the scattered storm activity will also gradually weaken.  Expect mostly cloudy conditions today with some sun breaks and highs in the 70s.  East to southeast wind will be increasing later today in the 10 to 20 mph range. 

A warm front is to our south now, but will be moving northward later this afternoon and evening.  A dry line will become established across western OK.  The position of the warm front later tonight will be critical for the possibility of surface based severe storms.  I don't think the dry line storms will have too much of a chance to get into our area, but if surface based storms form near the warm front later this evening some of these could be severe due to increasing moisture and shear profiles.  I have included a chance of storms for late tonight into the pre-dawn hours of Thursday across northern OK and southern Kansas.

The pattern will become unsettled through the next several days resulting with increased storm chances through Friday, with severe weather possible Friday afternoon and evening.

 The main upper level trough may exhibit a negative tilt by Friday and early Saturday before a second trough reloads from the Pacific west.  This pattern will remain in place through most of next week resulting in a series of storm chances in the 7 day period and beyond. 

 Next:

Due to the ongoing scattered storms in the region this morning, I'll skip the "next" category for now. 

 

Thanks for reading my little blog.

 

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