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Unsettled Pattern Continues.

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Looking very interesting this afternoon and evening. All indications suggest we will have sufficient surface heating together with some colder air aloft that will be moving overhead to produce a very unstable atmosphere. For those of you familiar with some of the parameters that measure instability, the Lifted Index (LI) will be close to a -10 this afternoon and the CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) will be over the 3500 mark. Also, the atmosphere will be basically uncapped as the temperature inversion aloft will have pretty well mixed out by that time. Fortunately, the shear values are not as impressive as the helicity is forecast to be around 100 which should limit the tornado potential. Even so, all modes of severe weather will be possible as the very strong updrafts will still be capable of producing significant rotation.

This will more than likely result in an enhanced hail threat with very large hail possible along with the potential for damaging winds and an isolated tornado or two. Storm initiation should be taking place around the mid to late afternoon time frame and those storms that do form will quickly move on eastward through the early night time hours. Area coverage is not expected to be all that great with approximately 30% of us receiving rainfall, but those storms that do occur will be troublemakers.

Unfortunately, this unsettled pattern will persist for several more days with the potential for severe storms each day through Wednesday. Locally heavy rainfall may also be an issue through Wednesday as well.

Temperatures will be warmer than normal with 60s at night and 80s during the day along with brisk southerly winds, mostly cloudy skies, and high humidity levels. The chances of rain will vary somewhat from one day to the next as conditions aloft vary from day to day, but the basic surface features will not change until a cool front arrives late Wed or early Thu.

That should be followed by a more stable pattern for the latter part of the week and hopefully into the coming weekend. It will also be turning cooler by then as our winds shift back to a northerly direction.

Between now and then, stay tuned, check back for updates, and keep a close eye on the sky.

Dick Faurot

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