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Next Few Days Could Be Very Interesting.

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Storms, some severe will be developing again this afternoon and each of the next few days as well.

The Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) on the right shows a large part of the nation will likely get wet over the forecast period which goes through this coming Friday morning. Hopefully our more western neighbors will receive some badly needed rainfall, and hopefully we do not get too much rainfall. Unfortunately there is the possibility that we may be dealing with some flooding issues over the next few days.

Also, there is a very good chance that we will be dealing with some severe storms this afternoon, on Monday, on Tuesday, and on Wednesday. There will be several rounds of convective activity each of the next few days and each will have the potential for producing severe weather with all modes possible.

Today looks very similar to Saturday except the atmosphere is even more unstable. Any breaks in the clouds at all will put temperatures into the 80s and with dew point temperatures around 70, the instability parameters are quite high with forecast CAPE values of 4000 or more and LI values to -10 or more. The dynamics are not quite as favorable, but with this kind of instability it will not take much for storms to bubble up by mid to late afternoon. As was the case on Saturday, those storms that do go up will quickly become severe with very large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes possible. Since the dry line will remain to our west and given the lack of a significant forcing mechanism, the chances of any one location receiving measurable rainfall will be on the order of 30-40%, so not everyone will be affected. But, those storms that do form will be real troublemakers.

The low level capping inversion should be giving way to storm development along about 4 or 5 pm this afternoon and some will continue into the early night time hours.

Monday and Tuesday also have a significant severe weather potential as a weak frontal boundary is expected to drop to near the Ok/Ks state line and bounce around that vicinity for the next few days. This will provide a better focus for storm development so we are carrying a better chance of storms, particularly for the late afternoon hours and quite likely extending through the overnight hours both days. These storms, in addition to having the potential for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps an isolated tornado or two; will have a better chance of producing flooding rains as well.

Temperatures will remain much above normal with highs in the 80s and lows near 70 through Wednesday.

This very active pattern will extend into the day Wednesday when the pattern aloft finally starts to change. This change aloft will push a cool front through the state during the day which means another round of showers and storms, some potentially severe. But, more importantly, it also means the following few days should finally stabilize with only a few lingering showers perhaps early on Thursday followed by partly cloudy skies and cooler conditions for the next few days and going into the Memorial Holiday Weekend. Unfortunately, the longer guidance has become inconsistent from run to run and between the various solutions regarding the weekend creating additional uncertainty in the forecast for that time frame. Thus, have introduced a slight chance of rain for Saturday.

As always, stay tuned, check back for updates, and keep a close eye on the sky.

Dick Faurot

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