Storms Likely

From 2:40 AM:

Thunderstorms will again be in the forecast today with highs near 82.  Some of the storms may be strong to severe, even this morning, with another chance of strong to severe storms later this afternoon.

 Yesterday was a very active day regarding severe weather across the southern plains including tornadoes in Eastern OK and southwestern Missouri.  I'll encourage you to check the front page of the web site for additional news about the tornado touchdowns of yesterday afternoon.  The preliminary tornado count from the SPC page is nearing 50 at this point, and additional reports may be compiled later today.

 We're moving into a very active weather pattern for the next 3 day including the potential for significant severe weather events at times.  The chance for storms will continue, including the possibility of this morning with heavy rainfall and hail. But the confidence at this hour is rather low on any specific solution.

 Model data has been consistently showing signals for early morning storms, but the placement of the possible development has changed location from run to run.  Runs from yesterday indicated morning storms in southeastern Kansas and extreme eastern OK.  Runs from late yesterday afternoon indicated storms in north central OK and SE Kansas, and model runs early this morning indicate storms may form across southwestern OK and also southern Kansas while moving east and growing upscale with time.  This creates a very low confidence forecast for specifics today, but I have little choice but to keep the probability of storm activity relatively high for today.  If morning storms do form, they will leave an outflow boundary near the northern or central portion of the state.  This will act as a focus for additional storm development later this afternoon or evening as the dry line to the west moves eastward.   Afternoon temperatures will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s along with south winds possibly shifting to the east or north later this afternoon for a few hours.

If the morning storms form, they may be severe with some hail and wind potential, but the higher threat of severe storms may end up occurring Tuesday.

The main upper level trough to our west will bring another strong upper level wave into the region tomorrow with an enhanced chance of severe storms including tornado potential. Tuesday has the making of a classic late spring severe weather outbreak across the state with a dry line to the west, a surface area of low pressure across western OK, and a warm front moving into southern Kansas.  CAPE or convective energy will be very high and super cell storms will be capable of producing extremely large hail Tuesday along with the potential for long lived tornadoes with a few storms. 

This upper level trough will not totally clear the area until Wednesday or early Thursday morning.  After this time, the pattern will bring a stable air mass to the region along with some cooler air from Thursday into the Friday and Saturday.

The Memorial Day weekend and holiday forecast will currently call for temperatures near normal with a slight chance of shower or storm Saturday and possibly Monday.  This portion of the forecast will be revised several times between today and this weekend.

 The extended pattern would support humid and warm conditions for the first full week of June, but I will currently keep the forecast dry for this period.