We finally get a break today with partly sunny and mild conditions. Afternoon highs will be in the 70s with gusty northwest winds around 10 to 20 mph, but another fast moving system will arrive Friday night into Saturday morning with a chance for some strong to severe storms in a few locations.
The rest of the Memorial Day Holiday weekend looks warm and humid with minimal storm chances.
The powerful upper level system produced even more severe weather yesterday across the Midwest and lower Ohio River Valley where another High Risk day was issued by the Storms Prediction Center. The upper level system is beginning to slower shear apart which means the energy is starting to subside.
The low level moisture that was located across our area has been pushed southward into Texas, but it's not far away. This moisture will rapidly return to the area Friday ahead of the upper level system. As the pressure falls across the Rockies, lee side cyclogenesis will occur allowing a surface area of low pressure to develop and move into northwestern OK Friday. A developing warm front to our south will move northward in response to the surface low and bring rich low level moisture into the region Friday evening through Saturday. The timing of the upper level wave combined with the surface features point toward a chance of severe storms for a few hours Friday evening and Saturday morning. The shear profile would support rotating updrafts which means the possibility of large hail with a small threat of tornadoes.
As the upper level wave moves east of the state Saturday morning, the warm front will continue to lift northward and the threat for organized storm formation will end for few days as a capping inversion is also expected to rapidly move over the region early putting an end to the storm threat.
A mid level ridge of high pressure is expected to build across part of the southern plains keeping most of the area humid and dry. A few showers or storms will be possible across the western part of the area, but probably not in our area. I will keep a slight chance of a shower or storm in the Tuesday forecast, but this remains a low probability as a weak surface boundary may ooze into northern OK for a few hours.