Remember the 100% chance that it would rain I mentioned yesterday but that only about 20% of the area would actually receive measurable rainfall? Well, if you look at the map on the right which shows the 24 hour precipitation totals from the OK Mesonet, the areal coverage was probably a little more than that 20%. But that is OK, just glad some lucky folks at least got enough rain to settle the dust. I missed out at my house, but we will have some additional chances over the coming week.
Those showers and storms also brought a change in the winds and at least a little break in temperature for some of us. Officially, Tulsa stayed below 100 but just barely as the afternoon high has been 99 today. The rainfall map also gives a hint as to where temperatures were a little more tolerable as 90s prevailed in the rain areas and triple digits elsewhere.
Tuesday looks to be another hot one with most, if not all of us, back up into triple digit territory. Light SE winds will not provide much ventilation either and the dew point will likely be a few degrees higher. This all adds up to heat index values close to the dangerous 105 level on Tuesday without much of a cooling breeze. At night, the light winds and generally fair skies will result in temperatures at least dropping into the 70s for most locations. Of course, the downtown urban environment will be warmer but will at least be below 80.
The upper level pattern gives me cautious optimism of another decent shot at showers and storms for Wed through Fri. This is a bit of a change as earlier it looked like anything would wait till Thu or Fri. However, there have been some fairly consistent indications that a complex of storms will form in Kansas Wednesday and drop southward into E OK by that afternoon. If so, that will give us a more E to NE wind for the next few days, additional chances of showers and storms in the more NW flow aloft, and another break in the triple digit heat. So, have introduced at least a slight chance of showers and storms for Wed through Friday.
After that, ridging aloft looks to become more dominant again so we will build back toward triple digits over the course of the weekend. Also, for Tue and again through the weekend, there will be the potential for a few isolated late afternoon storms, but the chances are expected to be only around 10% or so and we usually do not put such a slight risk on our graphics. Just be aware that these conditions could produce one or two storms on about any given day and those that do form will be moving slowly and therefore capable of dropping locally heavy rainfall and strong downburst winds.
As always, stay cool, stay tuned, and check back for updates.
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