The surface wind field ahead of the " cold front" has veered out of the southwest allowing slightly drier air to move into the area. Dry air heats efficiently and our temperatures have jumped into the upper 90s near 100 in Tulsa. Locations along the OK and Kansas state line will remain somewhat cool with highs in the lower 90s and locations south of I-40 will continue to see readings from 100 to 104.
The storm chances are not zero but remain on the low side as the boundary will slide southeast into the I-40 area this afternoon. The higher likely hood for organized storm activity may end up to our east in Arkansas or Missouri.
We're tracking a complex of thunderstorm activity this morning that is moving east to southeast across portions of Kansas. This complex may slide into northern OK between now and 10AM before the system begins weakening with time. There will be a slight chance of additional storms forming later this afternoon as a weak boundary slides into the region. A few of the late afternoon storms may be severe across extreme northeastern OK and western Ark.
The boundary is expected to slide northward Friday with a slight chance of scattered storms before the mid level ridge becomes the dominate feature over the state this weekend. The areas of extreme eastern OK and west Arkansas is a favored location for isolated thunderstorm activity even with the presence of a mid level ridge.
The GFS and EURO still suggest the ridge will be sliding eastward by Tuesday allowing for a mid level trough to move northwest out of the Gulf. EURO data suggests this wave will stay west of our immediate area but the GFS flattens the ridge and brings the influence of the wave closer to eastern OK. The prudent call at this point is to follow the usually superior EURO plots but the confidence will remain low regarding this portion of the extended forecast.
The temperatures this weekend will continue to be warm with morning lows in the upper 70s and afternoon highs around 100 to 103.
Thanks again for reading my weather blog-discussion.