The upper level circulation feature continues to help crank up showers and storms this morning. An outflow boundary is likely to slide across the I-40 area later today providing a focus for some additional storm development. The storms across the southern section of the state may produce some damaging wind gusts as the surface temperatures may climb to above 100 in a few areas. The rain cooled areas of northern OK will stay relatively cool for the next few hours before the clouds begin to thin out and the temperatures try to rebound. We have lowered the Tulsa high a few degrees but will keep the extreme northeastern sections of the state in the mid 90s while the southeastern third of the area will be nearing or slightly above the triple digit mark.
The heat advisory and excessive heat warning has changed today but it's only temporary. Some of the areas northeast of Tulsa will not be included in any kind of heat headline product while areas from the metro southward will continue to be in either heat advisory or heat warning products. Please see the top of this page for the counties included in these heat related products. We anticipate the entire area to be included in advisories or heat warnings by Friday and this weekend.
This upper level circulation may slide southward today and still be close enough Thursday for a few scattered showers and storms along the Ok-Arkansas state line. After Thursday, the extended models support a slight chance of daily isolated storms mainly across the far eastern section of the state into Western Arkansas.
The EURO suggests the mid level ridge will continue to be the dominant player, but may be centered across southern Missouri. This could create an area of weakness along the underside of the ridge meaning a few scattered showers or storms could fire up in a few spots this weekend into early next week, but the chance is very low.
Temperatures will be in the 100 to 106 range this weekend with morning lows in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
The extended data from the EURO also supports another mid level ridge split by the end of next week allowing for a few more easterly type waves to influence the southern plains. If this solution is correct, by the end of next week, we may also see a weak system meandering around the state.