A Few Storms Possible
We haven't changed the forecast thinking for the next few days: mainly hot, but at least a chance of a few scattered showers and storms, including a possibility this morning!
Moisture is slowly moving into eastern OK this morning and some mid level clouds started to form around 3AM. A few showers and storms then developed west of Fort Smith and have been moving northwest. A weak outflow boundary is also noted across far northwestern OK this morning and should slide across northeastern OK this afternoon. These two features combined with daytime heating will allow for scattered storms to develop. Its not impossible that a few locations may stay around 99 today and tomorrow for afternoon highs due to enhanced clouds and the scattered to isolated showers, but we'll not make any major temperature moves for the forecast.
Tropical storm Don is progressing as forecast with the main impact expected across the southeast Texas region. The system will not directly impact our weather, but indirectly an increase in low level moisture is expected today through the weekend. This will lead to scattered showers from today through Sunday across east central OK and western Arkansas. Most of these scattered showers and storms will diminish with the loss of daytime heating but the role of enhanced cloud cover will lead to some locations staying near or slightly below 100 this weekend.
Another minor issue will be the outflow boundary that is located north of our area this morning. This boundary will be slowly sliding southward, but is expected to wash out by Saturday. A few scattered showers and storms will develop across southern Kansas and could ooze into northern OK tonight and also this weekend. These scattered showers and storms would also be expected to diminish with the loss of daytime heating, but additional storms may form along additional weak outflows that float into the northern third of the state. The chance of showers and storms today will be in the 20% range with about a 30% chance Saturday and possibly Sunday.
The extended forecast has very little good news. The mid level ridge is expected to remain across the state next week and EURO data supports very warm temperatures at 5000 ft. This means daytime highs next week would be in the 105 to 110 range with the higher readings located across northwestern OK.
We're moving into the hottest portion of the year from a climatological stand point.
The model data is indicating the ridge will flatten by Thursday allowing a weak boundary to slide southward across southern Kansas into northern OK. This will be difficult in a major heat wave combined with this current dry spell, but miracles do happen!