As you can see from the map on the right courtesy of the Ok Mesonet, those spotty showers and storms this afternoon did bring some useful rains for a few lucky folks. Unfortunately, my house was not one of them! Oh well, it will rain one of these days. Unfortunately, as these spotty storms collapsed, there have also been some isolated reports of localized wind damage.
With the setting sun, most of the storms will dissipate and even fewer showers or storms are expected for Sunday. Ridging aloft is expected to strengthen over the next several days which usually results in general subsidence aloft and a gradual drying trend. However, there is obviously some moisture at the surface and aloft that is trapped under this ridge and that should be sufficient together with the daytime heating to produce a few afternoon and evening showers or storms. However, the trend is for fewer of them and the chances of any one location receiving measurable rainfall is only about 10% on Sunday. As was the case today, those few that do occur will be moving very slowly and will be capable of brief periods of heavy rainfall and strong, gusty, possibly damaging surface winds.
After that, the ridge aloft is expected to become even more dominant so that only one or two isolated storms in the terrain favored locations will be possible during the coming work week. As the ridge intensifies, the moisture will become even more limited so that partly cloudy skies on Sunday will be followed by mostly sunny skies for much of the coming week. That also means triple digit heat can be expected each day with little relief at night. Light southerly winds will not provide much in the way of ventilation either so the heat will be quite oppressive this week.
In fact, I have never forecast temperatures as extreme as what the coming week is shaping up to be. Certainly hope that I am wrong in that respect, but it appears that with the dominance of the ridge aloft and centered right over the state, abundant sunshine, and the possibility of a S to SW surface wind, temperatures will likely be approaching the 110 mark during the day and only in the lower 80s at night. In other words, we will be close to record numbers both during the day and also at night. Not a pretty picture.
In the meantime, stay cool, stay tuned, and check back for updates.
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