Afternoon highs may soar into the 113 to 116 range despite a weak front approaching northern OK. A few isolated storms are possible this afternoon and early evening but mainly across extreme northern OK.
A weak frontal boundary will attempt to slide across northern OK this afternoon and early evening bringing a slight chance of isolated showers or storms to extreme northern OK and southern Kansas. A weak wind shift has already passed extreme northern OK and may approach the Tulsa area this morning before becoming diffuse around midday. The boundary may then take another run at the area this evening.
The air flow ahead of the boundary will result in a southwest surface wind by midday to early afternoon and this may allow temperatures to soar into the 114 to 116 range. A few more clouds will be in the mix this afternoon compared to yesterday which will make for a tough temperature forecast this afternoon. We may be as low as 113 and as high as 116. Hot is hot, but a 115 reading would tie the all time record high for Tulsa. The previous all time record high was set in August of 1936. The daily maximum record for August 3rd is 110 from 1923. We should easily surpass this record and will be very close to tying or surpassing the all time record high. Yesterday mornings 87 was also an all time record warm low temperature surpassing 86 from 1980. This morning's temperatures may also tie or surpass yesterday mornings record.
The upper air ridge is slowly sliding southward this morning and will not be positioned directly over northern OK this afternoon but should be located near the Arklatex region through Saturday.
This weekend a cluster of storm activity is likely to form across central Kansas by Saturday evening and could take a turn southeast early Sunday morning clipping portions of southeastern Kansas or extreme northeastern OK. The above mentioned boundary may also waffle near the OK-Kansas state line this weekend into early next week providing for a few isolated storms.
The middle of next week may also see the ridge slightly weaker and with the mid level center located to our west. The temperatures will continue to be in the triple digits through at least Tuesday of next week but we could see some mid or upper 90s by the end of next week.
The problem is with the delicate feedback mechanism combining the impacts of the drought and dry vegetation. This "cycle" of heat is very hard to break, even as the mid level ridge attempts to weaken and slide westward next week. Model data usually reverts back to more of a climo solution by the end of the model periods and we have seen this solution for the past month regarding days 8 to 12 in the extended data. Obviously the ridge has persisted in some form or fashion for several weeks with very little change. Things are going to slowly change soon as the sun angle is slowly decreasing and sunset is occurring earlier every day. It may be of little encouragement at this point, but fall is just around the corner.