The forecast remains on track with a large area of rain across northern and portions of central OK as a strong upper level system swings across the Rockies into the central plains. This has generated rain with some embedded thunder along the north of the surface front and closer to where a front is located in the 5000 ft levels of the atmosphere.
The activity is not severe. Moderate rainfall rates will continue for the next few hours before the system begins pivoting southeast and east of the area. The rain will be ending from the west to the southeast later today with some sun likely across the far northwest portions of the viewing area, while clouds will remain all day across the far eastern OK area.
The Tulsa metro will remain cloudy through at least 2pm with some sun breaks possible into the later portions of the day. The rain will begin moving away from the Tulsa area around noon but we think the cool air will remain for the day. The models are indicating highs will move into the 70 degree range with the late day sun, but we've kept the cooler upper 60s and mid 60s on the map for locations near and east of Tulsa. Some lower 70s will be likely along the I-35 area today. Northwestern and western OK will be in the sun by midday.
Patchy fog is a possibility tomorrow morning with morning lows in the lower 50s and daytime highs moving into the upper 70s to lower 80s.
The NAM data brings another boundary across the area tomorrow afternoon with a wind shift while the GFS-EURO keep the south winds for the day and delay the boundary until Saturday evening and Sunday. We will keep the winds from the south Friday with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s, but will lower the highs just a tad for the weekend.
A major upper level system will become cut off from the upper level flow early next week keeping the northeastern OK vicinity in a northerly flow aloft. At this point, we're forecasting dry and mild conditions for most of the week. This is a little suspicious from a climate standpoint. There will no doubt be some changes for the middle portion of next week, but the confidence in making any changes to the extended remains low.
Enjoy the morning rain.