Look for above normal temperatures for the rest of the week with highs today in the mid to upper 80s. A slight chance of rain will remain for the weekend but the higher chances will be across western OK.
We're looking at another super great weather day with highs in the lower to mid 80s along with south winds from 10 to 15 mph. The fire danger is slowly increasing this afternoon and will be moderate to high Wednesday through Friday due to the gusty south winds. A strong upper level system currently off the Pacific Northwest coastal region will bring a slight chance of showers and storms to northwestern OK Wednesday. The better chance for may hold off until Saturday and Sunday as the main trough sends some energy across the central and southern plains. The model data continues to flip around on the exact QPF (quantitative precipitation forecast) but the pattern and trend of the data does support a chance of showers or storms this weekend near our area. The better chance this weekend may be along and west of the I-35 corridor, but our probability will remain at 30% for this forecast cycle.
Temperatures this morning are running in the lower to mid 50s with clear sky and light wind. A few spots are slightly cooler, but most of the region will move from the 50s to the upper 60s by 10AM and the mid and upper 70s around 1pm. Afternoon highs will be a few degrees warmer today than yesterday with highs nearing 86 near Tulsa with some lower 90s possible across west central OK.
The upper levels of the atmosphere are undergoing a major change this week.
The trough in the east will be replaced by a ridge, while the ridge in the west is being replaced by a trough. This pattern is very typical for late September and early October.
The long term ensemble data supports this pattern remaining through the middle to end of the month which would keep us somewhat warm and with a chance for a few storm systems to brush the area. The various model output solutions do remain somewhat dry for eastern OK despite this pattern change.