Expect highs in the lower to mid 80s today with a gusty south wind. A chance of showers and storms will continue for part of the weekend with higher chances to our west.
We're not expecting any major changes today in the weather forecast when compared to yesterday's numbers and yesterdays weather. Afternoon highs will move into the lower or mid 80s with mostly sunny conditions. Some high and mid clouds will be likely today as the first part of our storm system currently to our west draws closer to the plains.
The major upper air pattern shift is underway with the ridge moving eastward and the upper level trough slowly moving west across the western third of the nation. Rain and storms will be common today across the desert southwest with snow likely in the higher elevations of the intermountain regions of the western half of the nation. Elevations above 7000 ft would be in the running for significant snows from Nevada to Utah.
As the trough moves east, the ridge will be located near western Tennessee and Eastern Arkansas. The ridge position may be too close to our eastern border to allow a healthy chance of showers or storms for this weekend. The areas located just west of Tulsa will have a much higher chance of rain and storm activity, including the possibility of some locally heavy amounts in western OK.
This mornings data continues offer another flip regarding the GFS. The model is now bringing a healthy amount of rain into the Northeastern OK area Sunday morning and afternoon, while the EURO is keeping the bulk of the precipitation to our west.
This would represent an outlier from previous runs and will be discounted heavily for this cycle. If the EURO, usually a superior model, brings the rain closer to Tulsa during the next model run, we'll be increasing the rain chances for Sunday while bringing the temps down a few degrees. As it stands this hour, the chance of showers and storms for the Tulsa metro will be near 30% with rain chances across the I-35 corridor across western OK near 80%.
The temperatures will begin leveling off tomorrow and Friday with the increased cloud cover and gusty south winds. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s with morning lows in the lower to mid 60s. The normal high for this day in October is 76 with the morning low near 54. As you can observe, we're once again above normal for afternoon highs and will remain so for the rest of the week.
The tropics seem quiet but there may be a developing low across the Gulf during the next few days. Otherwise tropical storm Philippe is over the Atlantic and may become a hurricane soon, but would have no direct impact on mainland U.S. interests.
Enjoy the weather, and each other.
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