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Rain Is Coming

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48-hour rainfall image. 48-hour rainfall image.

Notice the statewide 48 hour rainfall image on the right courtesy of the OK Mesonet. Our more western neighbors have had a good soaking and in some cases they have gone from drought to flood as flood watches remain in effect for some of the extreme SW counties. The question is: when will we get that rain; and the answer is that we won't. At least not that much.

Notice how the rain has not made much progress east of I-35, at least not so far. Later tonight and into Monday morning the system responsible for the rains further west will be gradually moving further eastward bringing a good chance of rain for most of E OK after midnight and through the Monday morning time frame. The showers should be tapering off by afternoon. More importantly, most of the energy with the system is shifting further north so the amount of rainfall that we receive is expected to only be on the order of 1/2 inch or so. So, barring any surprises, rain is likely by Monday morning tapering off by afternoon but not nearly as much as our western neighbors have received.

By Tuesday, a mix of sun and clouds is expected along with enough residual moisture for a slight chance of a shower or thundershower. Wednesday still looks to be the day when a stronger cool front will arrive, probably late in the day. There will be another chance of showers or possibly some thunder with that system followed by clearing skies and cooler conditions for the Thu-Fri time frame.

The weekend should get off to a pleasant start with a return to southerly winds and a bit of a warmup for Saturday. Right now, Sunday is very questionable though as the longer range products are completely out of phase by then. The Euro is much more progressive and is bringing a rather strong cool front through on Sunday along with a good chance of rain. On the other hand, the GFS is much slower and does not bring that system through till later Monday. Most of the time, the GFS will exhibit a fast bias so this is a bit unusual that the Euro would be that much faster. Hopefully, the next couple of model cycles will resolve these differences.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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