Been following the rainfall totals across the state over the course of the weekend and the map on the right shows that some of our western neighbors have received a good soaking. The good news is that the rain is finally headed our way, the bad news is that it will not be nearly as generous. The system aloft that has been responsible for the heavier totals to the west is weakening rapidly as it moves to the NNE. As a result, rain and showers will be likely for later tonight and through the morning hours of Monday as the system gradually translates our way. Rainfall totals still look to be on the order of ½ inch or so with some locations receiving a little more, others less. That will certainly help, but it is not a drought breaker either.
Look for the rain to be tapering off if not ending all together by afternoon or evening and we should even see some breaks in the clouds during the afternoon as well. Winds will be light and somewhat variable in direction as the dynamics with this system are not very strong. The clouds, showers, and light winds will also keep temperatures on the mild side with morning lows in the 50s to near 60 and daytime highs in the 70s.
Residual moisture could produce a few isolated showers or even some thunder on Tuesday, but the chances appear to only be on the order of 20% or so. More sunshine and a return to southerly winds will also warm us back to near 80 during the day.
Wednesday still looks like another system will be moving through producing a decent chance at showers or thunder ahead of a cool front which should arrive late in the day. Don't get your hopes up too much on the rainfall potential of this system as it does not appear to be a drought buster either.
It will be followed by clearing skies and lots of sunshine for the Thu-Fri time frame along with cooler nights and mild days. Saturday looks promising as well, but as mentioned this morning there remains a great deal of uncertainty regarding the longer range guidance beginning on Sunday. For now, have decided to keep us dry and warm for Sunday, but there remains one set of guidance that suggests another cool front would arrive during the day bringing a good chance of rain. Hopefully, this conflicting guidance will get resolved over the course of the next few model runs.
So, enjoy the rain, stay tuned, and check back for updates.
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