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Freeze Likely Tonight.

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The map on the right courtesy of the OK Mesonet shows the morning low temperatures around the state. Notice that Foraker, which is a small community in northern Osage county, did drop to the freezing mark first thing this morning. Temperatures at or below freezing are expected to be much more widespread to start the day Thursday and a freeze warning is in place. Many of the normally cooler valley locations will likely be in the mid-upper 20s for a minimum temperature and the normally warmer urban environments will be near the freezing mark. Anyway you look at it, it will be a cold start.

We will still have northerly winds on Thursday, but the pressure gradient will have relaxed considerably so the winds will not be nearly as strong and only around 10-12 mph during the day. Thursday night will be another cold one with lows in the low-mid 30s, but a return to southerly winds will initiate a warming trend during the day.

A disturbance aloft still looks like it will have enough punch to bring more clouds our way over the weekend and a chance of showers, particularly for the Saturday night/Sunday morning time frame. It also appears it will have a weak surface boundary associated with it so a more northerly wind on Sunday may slow down the warm-up somewhat. This system does not appear all that impressive, but there has been a consistent precipitation signal on all the longer range guidance for several days now so will maintain at least a slight chance of rain.

Gusty southerly winds will be returning for Mon and into the day Tue though and that should push our daytime highs to near the 80 degree mark. After that, things could get real interesting. The longer range guidance is completely out of phase by the middle of next week and about the only thing they agree on is that it will be turning cooler again by early Wed along with a chance of showers or storms. How much cooler and how much precipitation will have to wait for the next few model cycles to see if there is better agreement and consistency. At this time, the solutions are so widely divergent that just about anything is possible for later next week.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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