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A Warming Trend

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Temperatures are not quite as cold this morning compared to yesterday at this hour, but some locations will hit the freezing mark this morning before moving into the lower 70s this afternoon.  The Tulsa metro should remain above freezing this morning and move into the 73 to 75 range this afternoon with southeast winds returning at 10 mph. 

 

 We're already seeing signs of low level moisture return this morning across SE Texas and this moisture will be moving northward during the day approaching our area by early Saturday morning.  This will set the stage for a chance of showers or storms Saturday evening into early Sunday near and southeast of Tulsa as an upper level disturbance brushes the state and pushes a surface front over the region.  Bufkit files indicate the convective parameters will be increasing during this time period and some strong to severe storms will be possible.  The main issue would be some moderate sized hail in a few of the storms, with the higher coverage remaining southeast of Tulsa. 

 

The warmer mid level temps will move across the region Monday and Tuesday helping to move us into the lower or even mid 80s before a strong cold front arrives Wednesday.  The GFS and EURO are now both closer together with the system and will remain progressive with the upper features.  The00Z euro yesterday was closing off the H5 low over NW OK Saturday producing very cold temps and some precipitation.  But today's data suggest the cold air will not have any precip to deal with so we'll keep the forecast dry but cold for next Thursday and Friday. 

 

The forecast numbers for Today:

 

Tulsa 75

Bartlesville 73

OKC 75

Okmulgee 74

Muskogee 74

McAlester 76

Grove 71

Claremore 74

Coffeyville 73

Fort Smith 74

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