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Fine Fall Weekend

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The image on the right shows the expected total precipitation across the country valid through Thursday morning. It is known as a QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) and as you can see, we have a chance for some more rain. In fact, if this verifies we will pick up 1/4-1/2 inch over that time period. Just exactly when during that time period is the next question and all indications continue to suggest that our next best chance for rain will be Wednesday night; in other words at the end of this particular forecast period.

Between now and then, we have some mighty fine fall weather to look forward to. Sunny skies and southerly winds will produce a nice rebound in temperatures for today with the only issue being an enhanced fired danger situation due to rather gusty winds and low humidity levels this afternoon. The winds will be shifting back to the NW Sunday as a weak wind shift moves through the area. However, this will amount to not much more than a wind shift as it is moisture starved with dew point temperatures holding in the 30s.

Halloween Day will see our winds quickly return to a southerly direction and temperatures moderating even more with afternoon highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s under sunny skies. Tuesday will be warmer yet with gusty southerly winds in advance of the next, stronger cold front that is expected to arrive late Wednesday. As mentioned above, it will be this system that has the greatest potential to bring us additional rainfall and there may be some storms as well. At least the synoptic set-up at this time certainly suggests a good chance for thunderstorms by late Wednesday or during the overnight period.

As is often the case at these longer time ranges, there are some timing/intensity differences among the suite of longer range guidance products. Those differences will be resolved as we draw closer to the event as will the question of how strong any storms will be. For now, will go with a likely chance of showers/storms by late Wednesday afternoon with some lingering clouds and showers into the morning hours of Thursday.

That should be followed by clearing afternoon skies and cool conditions for Friday and into Saturday.

As always, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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