We're looking at another very nice mid-fall afternoon today with highs moving into the upper 70s along with gusty southwest winds at 15 to 35 mph. This will occur before a stout cold front arrives Wednesday afternoon bringing gusty northwest winds along with another robust cool down. There will be a chance of some post frontal showers with a few rumbles of thunder, but the coverage of the precip may be on the slim side. Trav brought this number up to a 70% chance for Wednesday evening. I think most of this will be on the light side with the higher coverage near or northeast of Tulsa.
Temperatures Wednesday will be tricky with the front arriving around 3pm bringing a temperature drop into the lower 50s or upper 40s by the 5pm to 6pm hour. This will happen after we reach the daytime highs in the mid or upper 60s from 1pm to 3pm. The GFS is not bringing the front into the region until the 10pm hour Wednesday evening, but we have discounted this solution for the faster NAM.
The Thursday and Friday periods will be cool and dry.
Another system will be arriving Saturday evening into Sunday with a frontal boundary that will move southward into the north Texas area before stalling. This boundary will attempt to move northward Monday or Tuesday of next week with the approach of an upper level system and this will keep the weather pattern very active early next week.
This pattern will be conducive to a severe weather threat, especially Saturday evening, but the low level moisture may be lacking for the initial boundary intrusion this weekend. The chance of showers or storms will be only in the 20% range for Saturday evening but if storms do form, they would more than likely be severe.
The moisture will be returning early next week and with a boundary retreating into the area. This should set the stage for a wet Monday through Wednesday. Details will follow and the pops on the extended will be increasing with each run.