Turning Colder Late Today
The cold front is now approaching northwestern OK and will be blowing across northeastern OK by this afternoon. We'll hit the upper 60s or even some lower 70s with south winds ahead of the boundary at 20 to 30 mph. The front will move across the region this afternoon between 4pm and 6pm with a very robust temperature drop and winds from the northwest at almost 40 mph. A wind advisory will be required for a few hours this afternoon in the wake of the front before the pressure gradient relaxes early Thursday morning.
The chance for pre-frontal storms maybe around 20% to 30% for eastern OK. The NSSL is one of the models indicating some pre-frontal storms will be possible along and east of 69-75.
Our better chances for showers will occur post frontal and mainly across southern Kansas or extreme northern OK with very light precipitation expected. The cold air associated with the upper level system will change rain into snow across central Kansas. There could be some light snow flurries across extreme southern Kansas and extreme northern OK, but this will be a very slim chance. Some light snow may also fall across far northwestern OK this afternoon.
The winds will be very strong this afternoon in the wake of the front with northwest winds in the 30 to 45 mph around sunset.
The cold air will stick around Thursday and Friday before the air mass attempts to moderate this weekend as south winds return to the region. Another cold front will move into the area Sunday, but low level moisture will more than likely be confined to north Texas. We'll keep a 20 pop for this period. If a storm could form Saturday evening or Sunday it would be severe. I almost dropped this pop but we'll keep it in the forecast for consistency.
The front will move southward and stall across central Texas Sunday before lifting northward as a warm front Monday and Tuesday. The upper air flow will be from the southwest as a major upper level trough across the western half of the nation sends several waves over the southern plains early next week. This will give us enhanced rain chances for the first time in many months. Stay tuned for more details as we grow closer to the time period next week.
I would take the jacket or the coat to work this morning. Later this evening you'll need it.