Cold and Possibly Wet

Several issues to deal with creating a complicated forecast scenario for the next several days. First is the widespread area of rain that will persist across the SE counties and which could produce some localized flooding problems. Notice the two day rainfall map from the OK Mesonet on the right. Some generous rains have fallen across the state over the last two days, but the rains will continue for the SE counties through today and into the day Monday. Although the general movement of that area of rain is to the NE, some rain will be developing further north in response to a vigorous storm system aloft that will be moving this way from the southern Rockies. The temperature profile will keep it all rain for later tonight and into the day Monday with the possible exception of the NW fringe where there remains a chance for a wintry mix. That NW fringe will likely be aligned along the I-44 corridor on Monday.

This also means there will be a rather tight precipitation gradient with rain likely across SE OK and little or no precipitation further to the NW. That gradient will likely set up along the I-44 corridor on Monday with wet conditions to the SE and dry conditions to the NW.

So, the next issue is the amount of any wintry precipitation. Fortunately the recent guidance has been reasonably consistent in keeping it very light, if indeed there is any at all. For that reason, the precipitation chances have been dropped to less than 50% on Monday, and that should be mostly in the form of light rain. Travel issues are expected to be confined to wet roads with no icing problems anticipated.

Another forecast issue is yet another storm system aloft that will be passing across the state during the Tue-Wed time frame. Currently, it appears that it will be moisture starved and only some lingering clouds with possibly a flurry or two is all that can be expected.

The only other forecast concern is just how cold it will get. The possibility of some lingering clouds will have an effect on the daytime highs as well as the night time lows. Bottom line is that temperatures will be much below normal pretty much all week and going into the coming weekend. In fact, another cold front is scheduled to arrive by early Friday, but so far it appears to be a dry system.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot