Mighty nice day today with the sunshine, light winds, and mild afternoon temperatures. Not for much longer though as increasing cloud cover is expected for the overnight hours and we should be pretty much overcast on Tuesday. Along with the cloud cover comes a chance of some light rain or drizzle.
A cool front will arrive during the day Tuesday, but it is not a real strong one. In fact, our winds will start off from a light southerly direction first thing in the morning and then only gradually veering to a more SW direction, then a more W direction, and finally a NW direction as the day wears on. Also, temperatures to start the day will be relatively mild due to the clouds and most of us should be above freezing, then moderating into the low-mid 50s before the cooler arrives that night.
The system aloft is not particularly strong either so the large scale forcing is going to be rather weak. However, there should be just enough lift and moisture to wring out a few sprinkles or light showers before the day is over. At first glance, the parameters for snow would appear to be met by Tuesday evening, but the vertical profiles of temperature and moisture show a layer of warm, dry air from the surface to several thousand feet up. Thus, only light rain or drizzle should be the general rule although cannot completely rule out a rain/snow mix along the OK/KS state line Tuesday evening or night. Little or no accumulation is expected.
Wednesday will then see brisk northerly winds and below normal temperatures for a change, followed by a cool day for Thursday and another weak, dry cool front arriving by early Friday. The weekend should get off to a pleasant start on Saturday, but the Sunday-Tuesday time frame is more questionable. There is a lack of consistency with the longer range guidance which reduces our confidence regarding how things will play out during that time frame. For now, will keep Sunday dry and introduce at least a slight chance of precipitation by Monday and perhaps Tuesday as well. Beyond that, the guidance keeps suggesting a stronger system may impact our weather later that week, but am not going to climb out on that limb just yet.
In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.
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