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Storms Possible This Evening.

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The image on the right, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, shows the maximum winds that have been measured as of early this afternoon. So far today, winds of 50 mph have been recorded so this is obviously a very windy day. The storm system responsible for these winds is very compact, very powerful, and has some very cold air aloft associated with it. It will be moving across KS later today and tonight and will produce some showers and possibly a few strong to severe storms. Fortunately, there is very limited moisture available as the dew point temperature is in the 40s and that poses a limitation on the amount of instability available. Even so, the strength of the system and the colder air aloft may support some stronger updrafts which will then be capable of causing a hail/wind threat. That will be for the late afternoon/early evening hours with any showers or storms quickly moving on eastward.

Skies will be quickly clearing from west to east overnight as well with lots of sunshine for the next few days. Also, those strong southerly winds today will be strong and gusty from a more westerly direction early tonight as any rain moves on eastward and a much lighter W to SW wind by Tuesday morning. Much lighter W to SW winds will then prevail for Tuesday and Wednesday along with very mild temperatures. This is a Pacific type frontal system that will be passing through tonight and the westerly winds will bring drier air, but still very mild air back over the state. As a result, our nights will be cool and our days quite warm with highs in the 60s for Tuesday and well into the 60s and possibly near 70 for some locations on Wednesday.

A stronger cool front is still on schedule for arrival later in the day Thursday so we should still be in the 60s Thursday afternoon before the colder air arrives that night. Friday looks to be the coolest day of the week and Friday night the coldest night of the week. After that, a nice rebound looks to be in store for the weekend although there remains some uncertainty regarding later Sunday and early the following week. A lack of consistency in the longer range guidance with some of the products completely out of phase with one another leads to a low confidence scenario. At present, will go with mild weather into the day Monday and cooling off later in the day or on Tuesday. Also, there may be some rain chances from late Sunday into the early part of next week.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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