The mild temperatures recently have had an impact on soil temperatures as might be expected. On the right is the 2 inch soil temperature under sod as of early this afternoon, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. This time last week those temperatures were in the low-mid 30s so they have really rebounded. The spring-like temperatures this afternoon will provide another bump, but we have another cool-down coming our way on Thursday.
The westerly winds and 70 degree temperatures this afternoon will be replaced by gusty northerly winds of 20-30 mph by Thursday afternoon and falling temperatures. After starting off in the 40s early Thursday morning, temperatures make it to near 60 before the colder air starts filtering in. The actual wind shift should be reaching the I-44 corridor around 9-10 AM; earlier for locations further north and later for locations further south. Temperatures will probably hold steady or may even go up a few degrees for several hours after the wind shift as the colder air will trail the cold front by several hours. By later Thursday afternoon, look for temperatures to have dropped into the low-mid 50s and we should be near freezing to start the day Friday. This will be a dry system.
Friday will see lots of sunshine, brisk NW winds, and afternoon highs in the lower 50s. Another freeze is expected to start the day Saturday, but a quick return to gusty southerly winds during the day and lots of sunshine should get us back to near 60 that afternoon. Southerly winds and mild conditions are expected for Sunday as well before the next front arrives Sunday night or into the day Monday.
The longer range guidance remains inconsistent regarding the system that will be approaching early next week. About the best that can be said right now is that we do expect at least a slight chance of rain for Monday and possibly a better chance for Tuesday. It will also be turning cooler, but not cold so any precipitation looks to remain of the liquid variety. Hopefully, the next few model runs will get a better handle on things so we can have more confidence on that time frame.
In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.
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