The cool front is to our southeast and we're looking at a cool and breezy afternoon across the region with highs in the lower to mid-50s. Sunny conditions will prevail but a few clouds will remain across extreme southeastern OK for the pre-dawn to mid-morning hours. Northwest winds will remain across the state in the 10 to 20 mph range and this will keep the fire danger elevated today. Please use caution.
I was incorrect with the timing of the cooler air regarding yesterday afternoon. I had forecasted temps near 57 for 5pm and we didn't cool down into the mid-50s until 7pm. This incorrect temperature forecast also lead to afternoon highs in Tulsa near 70, and I had forecasted highs of 64 by the 2pm hour. The weather can be humbling.
The next system will rapidly approach the area this weekend and our surface winds will back from the southeast quickly tomorrow morning. Southeast winds at 10 to 20 mph will be common across eastern OK tomorrow with higher wind speeds located from the I-35 corridor westward.
Another boundary will enter the state Sunday morning and move across northern Ok before stalling around the noon hour or so. This boundary will move back to the north Monday as another upper level system approaches from the west causing the pressure to drop across Eastern Colorado. Winds will continue to be from the south to southeast Monday and this will attempt to bring low level moisture back into the region Monday into Tuesday.
Tuesday seems to be the best time period for showers or storms, and the pattern would suggest the potential for some strong to severe storms. The model output suggests most of the storms would be located across the far eastern part of the state into Western Arkansas. But it's too early to time the system, and a delay or advancement of the system by 12 hours could change things quite a bit. We'll keep monitoring the data closely and will keep you posted regarding the severe weather potential early next week.