Notice the two maps on the right, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. The top one shows the winds this afternoon and a frontal boundary can be clearly seen in the surface wind field. That boundary is expected to make it a little further south over the next 48 hours than first thought. The second map shows the dew point temperature or the amount of surface moisture available and clearly shows how dry the air is behind that wind shift. But, the air is not all that much cooler behind the wind shift so even though it now appears the front will make it near or south of I-40, temperatures north of the boundary will not be all that much cooler than south of the boundary.
Also, the boundary itself will become more diffuse with time as the northerly winds behind the front and the southerly winds ahead of the front which we have now will be more from the E to NE behind it and E to SE ahead of it by this time Monday. With the boundary becoming more diffuse and with the absence of any upper level forcing, the system will be dry for our side of the state.
However, out west the low level jet should be cranking up late in the day and Monday night so there will be a chance of showers and storms west of I-35 by early Tuesday morning. The southerly winds aloft will also be spreading more cloud cover our way so we will have increasing cloud cover for Monday, cloudy skies for Monday night and lots of clouds on Tuesday.
The boundary will then move back north as a warm front putting us in the warm sector for Tuesday. Gusty southerly winds of 15-25 or more will make for a warm and windy day with highs near 70. The main storm system will be moving out of the Southern Rockies and across the Central Plains during the day Tuesday with a trailing cool front that will be moving from W-E across the state later Tuesday and Tue night. With that in mind, we expect our best chance of rain to be Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Severe storms will also be possible by then, although the parameters remain somewhat out of phase. The stronger dynamics will be further north and the better moisture and instability may turn out to be further E and SE. We will be in-between so have to consider the possibility of severe storms, particularly for the more eastern counties and into Arkansas for late Tue and that night.
After that, Wed and Thu are looking pretty good followed by another cool front arriving by early Friday morning. That may have a few isolated showers or storms with it, but it does not appear to be a big rain maker either. Cooler air will be filtering in for the coming weekend but temperatures will actually only be back to near their seasonal values. Also, the coming weekend looks to be mostly sunny and dry.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.
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