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Super Nice Monday

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We're in store for some great weather over the next 48 hours with mostly sunny conditions and temperatures moving well above the seasonal average by Tuesday and Wednesday.  Some locations may be getting close to the 90 degree mark Thursday to our west.  Before the warmer air arrives, today's highs will be super great with highs near 70.   

We're in a very strange pattern for mid-April.  We would usually be under the gun about every 2 to 3 days with severe weather potential, but this past week was very mild, and this weekend was rather cool by April standards.  The main upper level pattern of the ridge in the west and the trough in the east is a very common and normal pattern called the pacific north American pattern, but not for mid-April.  The unusual part is the lack of southern stream systems moving across the southern plains.  As I compose the discussion early this morning, a mid-spring snow storm is unfolding across portions of western Pennsylvania and a small area of northwest New York as a powerful nor'easter is moving up the east coast with heavy rainfall to the megatroplis regions of the nation.  Snow in western Penn may cause significant power outages due to the heavy wet composition of the snow.

The extended data suggests another boundary sliding southward later this week. This boundary may briefly enter northern OK Thursday but slide northward Friday and Saturday.  The boundary may cross the area sometime Sunday bringing a round of showers or storms and some cooler air.  Before the front arrives, the proximity of the boundary combined with some upper level support may spark off a few showers or storms from as early as Thursday but data also suggests a significant CAP or warm air aloft that could suppress activity south of the boundary.    The main upper level system will be nearing the area Friday into Saturday, and this time period could produce severe weather if the CAP does not hold.

Temperatures tomorrow and Wednesday are expected to move into the lower and mid-80s with even warmer conditions likely across the far western third of the state.  The readings this weekend will depend heavily on the actual outcome of the boundary, but could end up cooler than my current projections of near 70 by Sunday afternoon. 




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