On the Fringe for Severe Storms
I just wanted to give a brief update on the possibility of severe thunderstorms today into the weekend. Today's risk of thunderstorms, especially across Oklahoma is very conditional. We have the infamous "CAP" in place. In other words, warm air aloft may prevent the unstable air at the surface from rising, suppressing storm formation. Any storms that DO form will likely be very dangerous. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes would all be possible.
The greatest threat of severe weather lies across central and eastern Kansas today. The map above shows the Moderate Risk of severe weather for our friends to the north. As you can see, Green Country is just on the fringe of this risk area. Even though Tulsa is not included, the metro area is not entirely out of the woods just yet. The better chance of storms would lie north of a line from Ponca City to Bartlesville and Grove. This is a potent, but compact storm system, which is why there will be a narrower area of severe thunderstorms in this event.
The associated cold front from this system will sag south tonight and stall in our area Saturday into Sunday. There won't be too much upper-level energy to spawn storms during the day Saturday, but with the frontal boundary in place, the muggy air mass overrunning the frontal boundary may spawn a few showers and storms. A better chance of rain and thunderstorms is expected Sunday with a subtle wave of energy passing through the southern Plains. That energy along with a low-level jet in the early morning hours means the possibility of numerous showers and storms. The severe threat on either day is rather low, but can't ruled out since, after all, this is late April, and we've got at least some of the ingredients in place.
Storm chances will likely go well into next week. There isn't one particular day that stands out as a major threat for severe storms yet, but with this unsettled pattern, we shouldn't let our guard down.