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Unsettled Next Few Days.

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Complicated forecast for the next several days with a weak frontal boundary in the area playing havoc with winds and temperatures and the potential for showers and storms also playing havoc with winds and temperatures. The top map on the right, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, shows the position of the frontal boundary as of early this morning by showing the winds across the state. The boundary is expected to move very little over the next day or two before it becomes diffuse and washes out along about Monday. As a result, it should provide a focus for showers and storms, particularly behind the boundary which is why the QPF map, which is the second map on the right, is showing a healthy rainfall maximum in that general area.

So, the next couple of days will be unsettled to say the least with the potential for showers and storms, some of which could also become severe with primarily a wind/hail threat.

For today, the stratus clouds that have moved in will persist for much of the day so mostly cloudy skies will be the general rule. Also, a layer of warm air aloft will be difficult to overcome as it provides what we refer to as a capping inversion which acts to inhibit vertical development. Bottom line is only a very slight chance of a shower or storm during the day and any that do form will most likely not be rooted in the surface, that is they will be elevated which also limits any severe potential. Temperatures are a tough call due to the clouds and frontal boundary, but most of us should be in the low to mid 70s this afternoon.

For tonight and through the day Sunday, better support aloft will increase the chances of showers and storms, we will keep mostly cloudy skies, and the weak frontal boundary will still be in the general area. Thus, the chances of showers/storms will pick up to at least 50%. The cloud cover and more widespread nature of showers/storms will also keep temperatures in the 60s tonight and 70s for Sunday. Much the same is expected for Monday, but conditions should begin to settle down by Tuesday.

In fact, the rest of the coming week looks to be warm and humid as the expected rains of the next few days will leave a lot of residual moisture. Also, the rest of the coming week should settle down with respect to any additional rainfall chances with the chances generally less than 20% as ridging aloft becomes more dominant. That also means more sunshine and daytime temperatures back into the 80s.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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