More wind and warm air will be likely today with highs in the mid to upper 80s. No major systems will be nearing but a few isolated storms will be possible tomorrow to our northwest.
The big system that rolled across the area late Monday night and early Tuesday morning did not bring a different air mass to the region. The result will be a warm, windy, and muggy atmosphere remaining across the Eastern and Northern part of the state for the remainder of the week. While no major upper level support or focusing mechanism will be present for widespread thunderstorms over the next few days, a few isolated storms cannot be ruled out. Model data and observational data support a growing temperature profile in the mid-level of the atmosphere that should limit or CAP upward vertical development that would preclude thunderstorm development for most if not all of the region. Model data supports a somewhat sharpening dry line developing across far western OK and the High plains of Texas, but with little in the way of surface convergence along this boundary, only a rouge late day thunderstorm would be possible in the far western OK region through Thursday.
The very latest and greatest GFS indicates a slight chance of an isolated storm or two possibly tomorrow afternoon along the Ok-Kansas state line near the Ponca City area. I'll keep the pop off the map, but mention the slight probability for a Thursday storm to the northwest of Tulsa.
Friday into Saturday most operational model data supports a southern stream system approaching the plains of Texas and possibly moving into North Texas Friday. We'll watch this feature closely for any flips or changes in the data and keep any mention of these storms near a 10% probability for Friday. Travis added a 10 on the big map for the Friday period and I'll keep the mention for today's morning broadcast.
The main upper level flow by this weekend into early next week will be from the southwest. This flow is the prominent flow for May and is usually responsible for bringing major upper level troughs into the region. EURO and GFS data both support another system nearing the southern plains early next week but it's too early to discuss the specific storm parameters that may or may not exist.
After temperatures today will move into the mid-80s along with gusty south winds in the 15 to 30 mph range. Morning lows will be in the upper 60s or lower 70s. These temperatures and conditions will not change for the next several days.