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Windy and Extremely Warm.

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Mike Grogan, in his excellent discussion a day or two ago, had the OK rainfall map for the previous couple of days showing the excessive amounts in the northern counties. The map on the right is the OK rainfall map for the last 30 days and as you might imagine, some of those totals are all time records for the month of April. Speaking of April, the month turned out to be the tenth warmest April on record, not only for Tulsa but statewide, and the period from Jan 1-Apr 30 easily broke the previous record for the warmest first 4 months of the year.

So what, you may be wondering, does this have to do with May or our summer? Obviously, May is getting off to an extremely warm start and these much warmer than normal temperatures will continue right on through the weekend. After that, there are indications that this extremely warm pattern will break down for the following week or two, but that is certainly subject to change. As far as the summer is concerned, there is very little correlation between the preceding spring and how the summer will go. Our summers are more dependent on getting occasional showers which tends to keep things green which in turn tends to prevent the kind of extreme heat which we experienced last summer.

At any rate, sunny skies and gusty southerly winds will maintain much above normal temperatures right on through this coming weekend. The winds and abundant moisture will keep us from cooling off much more than the upper 60s at night. In fact, Tulsa set a record for the warmest morning low for today with a low of only 71. Daytime highs will be below record levels but still much above the normal for this time of year which is in the mid 70s.

A layer of very warm air aloft will provide a strong capping inversion making it difficult for any showers or storms to form. Having said that, a weak SW flow aloft will have some occasional embedded disturbances which just may provide enough lift for an isolate storm or two along the OK/KS state line for Thu night or Fri night. IF anything does form, it would likely be severe.

After that, a cool front should be arriving early Monday, but the longer range guidance is very inconsistent regarding how much cooling to expect and how much rain will accompany it. The general consensus favors a cooler, more unsettled pattern for early next week, but that is certainly subject to change.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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