A cool front is still on schedule to move across the state and should be arriving in E OK during the early morning hours of Monday and finally settling south of the Red River Monday night. That will bring with it some welcome relief from the summer like heat and humidity of the last few days, but there will also be a good chance of storms, some of which will likely be severe.
Today will see the last of the unseasonably hot conditions for at least a week or more with afternoon temperatures expected to be in the upper 80s this afternoon. That is 10 degrees above normal for this time of year and together with abundant moisture will create a very unstable atmosphere for the afternoon and evening hours. As a result, we expect some storms to be developing later this afternoon and given the extreme instability, they will likely become severe very quickly. Fortunately, the dynamics are rather weak so large hail and damaging downburst winds appear to be the primary threats at this time. By the way, regarding the hail threat, some hail up to the size of baseballs appear possible due to the extreme instability that is expected. Storms will continue through the night in advance of the approaching cool front with lingering showers and storms for much of the day Monday, particularly for the more southern counties.
Gusty southerly winds today will be shifting to northerly during the day Monday as the cool front pushes further southward. The northerly winds together with mostly cloudy skies and any lingering rain should result in a rather short thermometer for Monday. Due to the morning arrival of the front, morning temperatures will likely start off in the 60s, but only rebounding into the mid 70s that afternoon.
After that, a north wind on Tue and a NE wind on Wed and a more E wind on Thu together with partly cloudy skies should provide for some very mild conditions. Look for morning lows in the 50s and daytime highs in the 70s…..in other words, closer to normal for this time of year, but it will feel quite cool in comparison to the last few days.
In fact, it appears this pattern change may well extend through the coming weekend and into the following week as well. At least the longer range guidance does not suggest a return to the excessive heat that has characterized this first week of May.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.
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