Rain-shower chances will be highest this morning across southwestern and southern OK. The rain chances will be increasing near Tulsa by later this afternoon and tonight.
We're tracking the upper level low to our south this morning that is bringing a chance of showers and storms to the region today, tonight, and for part of the weekend. This low is weakening as it moves east-northeast with time, but will continue to be the main player for our weather in the short term. A surface cold front well north of the area this morning will attempt to move across the area Saturday, but the impacts will be negligible.
The big issue today is trying to resolve exactly how far northward the morning rain bands currently near the Red River will move this afternoon? The models have continued to slowly creep more northward with each run and the QPF field is also increasing with each run. This means the chances in our forecast should be increasing for later today. It still appears to me that our higher shower chances this morning through midday will remain across the southern third of the state, but will be increasing later tonight for northern OK. The timing of this system for northern OK is problematic.
Tomorrow the upper level system will be exiting the region but some scattered showers will remain likely along the back side of the low for a few hours. This will keep the clouds and the mention of the showers remaining in the forecast for Saturday with highs in the lower 70s.
Sunday I'll keep a slight pop with highs in the lower to mid 70s.
Another system should be nearing the western part of the state Monday and Tuesday but most model data support keeping this system to our west through the period. I have not included these probabilities for the Monday and Tuesday period at this moment.
A return to a southern surface flow will result in warmer air by the end of next week.
Yesterdays high: 83
Normal high: 78
Normal low: 58
Record high: 94 from 1980
Record low: 39 from 1924
Sunrise today: 6:20AM
Sunset today: 8:20PM