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Warming Up During the Coming Week.

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So far, the shower activity has been very spotty this afternoon and what few showers there are will quickly dissipate with the setting sun. That will leave us under partly cloudy skies for the overnight hours and to start the day Monday. Monday afternoon looks to see a repeat performance with a few showers and possibly some thunder, but the chances of any one location getting wet will be less than 20%. Thus, most of us will stay dry and after Monday, our rain chances will be even less. In fact, the map on the right is what we refer to as a QPF(Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) which in this case is valid through Friday morning. Obviously, we will be high and dry through that period.

Not only that, but the period covering the next two weeks, according to the Climate Prediction Center, also has a high chance of being drier than normal. So, not only will the coming week be mostly dry but much of that following week may turn out dry as well. That is a concern as May is normally our wettest month of the year and the rains so far this month have been rather spotty. Granted, some locations have received a good soaking, but as was shown in the morning discussion lots of other locations have missed out.

Along with the drier than normal outlook, temperatures will also begin to warm back up. After the relatively mild weather of this past week, we have about one or two more days of near normal temperatures before things start warming back up. The light northerly winds of today will continue through Monday and that together with the partly sunny skies should keep our daytime highs below 80. At night, light winds and some lingering clouds will combine to keep night time temperatures generally in the mid-upper 50s.

By Tuesday, the surface high pressure ridge will be sliding across the state producing light and variable winds but by Wednesday it will be moving on eastward with a return to southerly winds. Brisk southerly winds are expected each day after that which in turn means warming temperatures. Daytime highs will be well into the 80s in time for the weekend and overnight lows will be warming into the 60s. Along with the warmer temperatures, mostly sunny skies, and brisk southerly winds comes increasing evaporation rates so things will be starting to dry out if we don't get a good rain.

Right now, our next decent shot at showers would appear to be early that following week when the longer range guidance is suggesting a cool front may be arriving. The guidance is conflicting in that regard, so it is far too early to say if it will turn out to be a decent rainmaker for us or not. Certainly hope so as we will need the moisture by then.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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