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Tuesday Morning Update

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Welcome to the middle of May?  Yes, the calendar suggests May but the pattern is anything but May like.  May is usually our "wettest month" but we've only had .14 inches of rainfall in the official rain bucket at Tulsa International Airport. A normal rainfall total for May is 5.87".  It doesn't appear that we'll be seeing any big systems this week, but by the end of the weekend, a storm system should be approaching the central and southern plains.  

I'm not complaining.  Really.  May is also our peak severe weather month, and we've only had 2 tornadoes confirmed in the month of May, both of them occurring in Northeastern OK.  April had several tornadoes including the big tornado day in Northwestern OK and central Kansas, but so far, the month of May has been calm.  I'm glad that our lives have not been interrupted with the threat of severe weather, but odds would support the severe threat coming back before too long.  

The latest short term data supports a weak boundary enter southern Kansas tomorrow and possibly moving into northern OK with a weak wind shift. No precipitation would be expected in our main area of interest.

A mid-level  disturbance will approach the region from the west Friday and weaken as it moves eastward.  This feature will bring some clouds to the region, but again, no precipitation is expected.

The GFS and EURO do suggest a front will be approaching the area Sunday.  The data yesterday brought the system across our area Sunday afternoon and evening with a round of storms, but the run to run consistency is simply not solid at this point.  When we see these inconsistencies in the model data, we have a few options.  We can go " all in" or we can play the odds and support only slight mentions for showers or storms as the system draws closer to the region.  We've included only slight mentions in the forecast at this point for the Sunday and Monday time periods.  The upper air support for this system is not exceptionally robust.  While there may indeed be some kind of severe threat, the threat of a major severe weather outbreak would remain low with the current data set and pattern recognition.

 

Yesterday's high: 80

Normal high: 79   Normal low: 59

Record high: 95 from 1911

Record low: 35 from 1907

Sunrise today: 6:17AM    Sunset tonight: 8:24PM

 

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