Getting Warmer, Still Dry.
After the heat and humidity of the first week of May, we have certainly enjoyed some mighty nice weather since then. In fact, temperatures this morning were well below normal once again as drier air at the surface, fair skies, and a light northerly wind have all combined to allow for some very pleasant evening and overnight conditions. For those same reasons, lots of sunshine during the day is resulting in a quick warm-up with afternoon temperatures running above normal.
The surface high pressure ridge that is over us now will be drifting on eastward and our winds will be returning to a light southerly direction for Wednesday after light and variable winds for the overnight hours tonight. That will allow for another pleasant evening and overnight with temperatures falling into the 50s to start the day Wednesday. The light southerly winds and abundant sunshine will result in a rapid warm-up and daytime highs should be in the low-mid 80s.
After that, brisk southerly winds will produce warmer night time temperatures with morning lows generally in the 60s for this coming weekend. Daytime highs will remain in the low-mid 80s and both the morning lows and the daytime highs will be well above normal for this time of year. In fact, that continues a trend that has been prevalent all this year as we continue to blow out all previous records for the warmest start to any year.
It is also starting to get dry as the map on the right shows. This is the rainfall from across the state since the first of May, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. Fortunately, we had some decent rains in April, but since then the faucet has been turned off and our prospects for some widespread, soaking rains are rather slim. Keep in mind, May is normally the wettest month of the year and if we enter the normally hotter and drier summer months with a moisture deficit, that could lead to some real problems this summer.
By the way, our next shot at some showers or storms is late Sunday and into the day Monday when a weak frontal boundary will make it into the state. Right now, it looks like it will stall out and become diffuse with only scattered showers and storms. That is certainly subject to change so we will see how the next few model runs handle that system and any others coming along behind it. Currently, the longer range guidance continues to suggest drier and warmer than normal conditions right on through next week as well.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.