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Rain Chances in the Slim to None Category.

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Been a busy couple of days with lots going on. Showers and storms continue to affect the state, but as you can see from the map on the right, they have been pretty well confined further to the SW. Those areas need rain too and they will have more chances over the next couple of days. For E and NE OK, our chances of additional rainfall are pretty much in the slim to none category. Cannot rule out an isolated shower or storm, particularly for the more southern counties over the next few days; but the chances are less than 20% and we don't usually put such a small percentage on our forecast graphics.

The NE winds today have brought somewhat drier air over us despite the rainfall footprint from the storms a couple of nights ago. As a result, our nights will be dropping into the 60s for the next few nights and relative humidity levels during the heat of the day will be dropping into the lower 40% range which is not too bad. Speaking of the heat of the day, afternoon temperatures will continue to run a few degrees above normal for this time of year which translates into mid-upper 80s for daytime highs.

Some of the computer model solutions suggest there may be a little more cloud cover for Wed and Thu due to some moisture in the mid levels. However, that will just help hold temperatures somewhat in check and as mentioned, our rain chances are pretty slim. We will keep a light easterly wind through Wednesday, the winds will still be on the light side but more from the SE by Thursday and then increasing southerly winds are expected for the weekend. That will lead to even warmer temperatures with daytime highs back into the 90s and overnight lows back into the 70s for Sat, Sun, and Mon.

Our next decent shot at rain looks to be later Monday or perhaps on Tuesday. The longer range guidance continues to suggest a stronger system coming way along about then with a cool front arriving and bringing with it at least some scattered showers/storms. As we get better data over the next few days we will be able to fine tune that and hopefully bring the rain chances up. Also, there are at least some indications that the wind flow aloft will transition to a potentially more unsettled pattern as we go through next week. Too early to get too excited about the rainfall chances by then, but that is something we will be closely monitoring with subsequent model runs.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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