The main feature of interest continues to be the convectively induced area of vorticity located to our west that's basically morphed into an upper level system. This feature produced scattered thunderstorms yesterday afternoon and evening across southwestern, south central OK and north Texas. These showers and storms moved north to northeast and dissipated around sunset near and south of OKC.
Showers and storms remained active overnight closer to the center of circulation located across part of Northwest Texas. This system is acting very much like a warm core upper level system which means showers and storms actually blossom overnight very close to the circulation feature and can produce locally heavy rainfall. Model data is continuing to flip around with the specific solution for the track of the upper air disturbance, and I have made some adjustments to the forecast based on the very latest data from the EURO-NAM and GFS data which seem to suggest the system may jog slightly east to northeast this afternoon before moving southeast Friday away from the state.
Locations along and south of I-40 may see a few isolated showers between now and sunrise this morning. Locations near and northeast of Tulsa will be too far northeast for any shower activity this morning but I have included a slight mention for a shower or two late tonight through Thursday morning near the Tulsa metro. Higher chances will occur to the south and southwest of our immediate area this afternoon and tonight, including the OKC metro region. Late tonight into early Thursday morning showers and storms will persist near the center of circulation of the upper level low which may be located across south-central OK by early tomorrow morning. This system may slowly move eastward Thursday before exiting far southeastern OK and NE Texas Friday morning. I have favored the EURO track and timing for most of the forecast periods.
Our surface air flow is supporting slightly drier air this morning compared to 24 hours ago and this means the morning lows will be around 8 to 10 degrees cooler compared to yesterday. The afternoon highs will in the mid to upper 80s along with an easterly wind. A few more clouds will be in the mix this afternoon but mostly sunny conditions will prevail for most of the day.
The pattern will change early next week allowing for a surface boundary to approach the region Monday into Tuesday with a few shower and storm chances in the forecast. Extended data seems to hint at another active time period for our weather for the middle of next week.