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Thursday Morning Update

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The main upper level system of interest continues to spin across the north Texas and southern OK area this morning with showers and storms located near the center of circulation.  Outer rain and storm bands will once again form during the next few hours and rotate counterclockwise around the low for most of the day.  The track of the low is modeled by most of the weather model suites to slowly slide east to southeast during the next 24 hours before wobbling northeast into the Arklatex region Saturday.  The EURO has been the model of choice for my guidance the last few days, and I continue to base most of the forecast from the EURO solution.  I must stress a change in the track to the east-northeast by even 30 miles would bring showers and storms into the Tulsa and eastern OK area by this afternoon, but current indications keep the precip south/west of the Tulsa area again today.

Temperatures will again be regulated by cloud cover for most of Eastern OK with some rain cooled air for locations to the south and southwest.   Highs nearing the mid-80s will be common across Northern OK with a partly cloudy sky cover and locations south of I-40 may be closer to 79 for afternoon highs.  

Our readings will move back into the lower 90s this weekend along with a return of southerly surface winds and increasing low level moisture.  The humidity values will be increasing and this will allow temperature heat index values to move into the mid-90s this weekend. 

The EURO suggest a cold front will slide across the area Monday evening with a chance of storms, but data also suggest moisture from the Gulf of Mexico may not return in time for the front to have a high coverage of showers or storms.    I' ll keep a 30 pop for Monday, with a slight 20 for Tuesday and Wednesday, but this may come down in subsequent forecast cycles and updates.

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