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Pattern Change!

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The QPF map on the right is valid from 7AM Sunday morning to 7AM Monday morning which will cover at least a part of the expected shower/storm activity that is coming our way. We should also have a decent shot at showers/storms through the day Monday and perhaps into Tuesday for the more southern counties. Keep in mind, this is showing a widespread areal average for the expected precipitation; it does not mean that all of E OK will receive 1/4 inch or more of rainfall. In fact, I fully expect that some locations will receive an inch or more by the time it is all said and done, but at the same time there will be some locations that will miss out. Bottom line is there will be a 100% chance that it will rain in the viewing area, but at this time we are keeping the areal coverage at 40% which means there is a 40% chance that your location will get wet on Sunday.

Monday will be about the same, and as the week wears on there will remain a slight chance of a few showers/storms, mainly for the more southern counties. The reason for this is a pattern change that will be taking place in the upper level flow which will allow for a cool front to arrive late Sunday or Sunday night. This will not only bring with it the chances of showers/storms but also a nice break in the heat wave. After triple digits today and triple digits again on Saturday, the extra cloud cover and chances of rain should hold us below triple digits on Sunday. That will be followed by daytime highs in the 80s to near 90 for early next week.

Not only that, but it appears temperatures will be at or perhaps a bit below normal for the latter part of next week as well. There continues to be some discrepancies in where the cool front will stall out which will have a bearing on how the latter part of next week turns out for us. The GFS solution pushes the front nearly to the Gulf of Mexico which would leave us high and dry although still with a nice break in the heat. The European solution stalls the boundary out just north of the Red River which would keep a lot more cloud cover over much of E OK along with a chance of lingering showers/storms for much of next week as well. If we had a vote in this, I am sure we would all vote for the wetter solution offered by the ECMWF as we are getting desperately dry.

In the meantime, stay cool, stay tuned, and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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